“Everything may be about to change…”: A major new update has emerged in the escalating One Nation vs Coalition showdown, with growing speculation that a dramatic pσlitical shift could now be closer than anyone expected

One Nation’s lead over the Coalition has reached its widest margin since the Liberal leadership spill that forced Susan Ley out.

One Nation has increased its lead over the Coalition with the divide between the right-wing parties at its widest since Angus Taylor took the reins following a bloody spill against one-time leader Sussan Ley, new polling has found.

The poll by Roy Morgan found primary support for One Nation was at 25.5 per cent, while the Coalition held just 23 per cent of the vote.

One Nation has surged past Labor for three consecutive weeks since negative gearing and capital gains tax changes were announced as part of the controversial 2026-27 budget.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has increased its lead over the Coalition. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has increased its lead over the Coalition. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman.

Roy Morgan’s government confidence rating dropped three points to a low of 65 with a significant majority of Australians (60.5 per cent) stating that the country was “going in the wrong direction’. Only 25.5 per cent said Australia was “going in the right direction”.

The plummeting confidence was attributed to the persistent impacts of fuel shortages and the energy crisis amid the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

Anthony Albanese delivered a fuel update on Monday in which he warned the economic impact of the Middle East conflict would be felt by Australians some time.

“These are volatile and uncertain times, and I want to make it clear that when the conflict ends, that doesn’t mean that the economic tale concludes,” the Prime Minister said.

Anthony Albanese delivered a fuel update on Monday. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese delivered a fuel update on Monday. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

If a federal election was held now Labor would retain government but with a reduced majority.

Despite a drop in primary votes, Labor was still leading on a two-party preferred basis at 53 per cent compared to the Coalition’s 47 per cent

The next federal election contest is likely to be between One Nation and Labor, according to the polls.

In scenarios where either Labor or the Coalition squared off against One Nation, it would more than likely lead to a hung parliament.

The poll was conducted between May 18-24, and surveyed more than 1,600 electors via text.