Blow to Anthony Albanese as One Nation soars in first major post-budget polling
Anthony Albanese has been dealt a major blow as One Nation scores big in the first poll since the budget was handed down.
One Nation has surged past Labor in the first major poll since negative gearing and capital gains tax changes were announced as part of the controversial 2026-27 budget.
The poll by Roy Morgan found primary support for One Nation was at 32 per cent, while Labor held just 28.5 per cent of the vote and the Coalition at 16.5 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis, voters were almost split between Labor and the right-wing populist party, with some 49 per cent saying they would vote for One Nation, though Labor had a clear lead over the Coalition which sat at 45 per cent.
A majority of Australians at 59 per cent said they disapproved of the job Anthony Albanese was doing, while 57 per cent disapproved of the job being done by Treasurer Jim Chalmers.
Disapproval of the Prime Minister spanned both gender, every age group, and voters in almost all states, with Tasmania being the only holdout with a slim majority.
n a two-party preferred basis, voters were almost split between Labor and One Nation, according to a new poll by Roy Morgan. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
While Labor voters were found to be most motivated by value alignment, social justice, and fairness (42 per cent) and policy alignment or better policies (39 per cent), One Nation voters were driven by immigration reduction (58 per cent) and rejection of the major parties (52 per cent).
One Nation voters were also motivated by:
Perceptions that Australia is in economic and cultural decline,
Opposition to “woke” politics, climate policies and global institutions,
Belief that One Nation “puts Australians first”,
And support for Pauline Hanson as an authentic and honest political figure.
The poll comes after a contentious budget in which Labor has sought to reform housing investor tax credits – a proposition the Coalition has promised to repeal.
It also comes after One Nation secured its second only seat in the lower house after Farrer MP David Farley took the reigns from one-time Liberal leader, Sussan Ley.
On a two-party preferred basis, One Nation narrowly beat out the Coalition 51 per cent to 49, according to the poll.
In scenarios where either Labor or the Coalition squared off against One Nation, it would more than likely lead to a hung parliament.
The poll was conducted between May 13-14, and surveyed more than 2300 electors via text.
