One Nation is on the verge of reshaping South Australia’s political landscape, overtaking the Liberal Party to become the state’s second-most popular party just days before the election.
A new YouGov poll, conducted for The Advertiser, showed One Nation jumped to 22 per cent of the primary vote, while the Liberals sat at 19 per cent.
Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas remains on course for a commanding victory, sitting at 38 per cent primary and holding a landslide 59–41 two-party-preferred lead.
Alarm bells are ringing within the Liberal Party, with MPs at both state and federal levels warning they could be wiped out in the lower house as their vote collapses across key electorates.
The Liberals have already been shut out of Adelaide after the 2025 federal election, holding no seats in the state’s capital.
Their former strongholds, Sturt, Boothby, and Mayo, once represented by party heavyweights including Christopher Pyne and Alexander Downer, have been lost, further threatening their state prospects.
Some within the party maintain hope that One Nation’s surge will be limited to regional areas and that Adelaide will hold the line.
Others cite the 2018 state election, where Nick Xenophon’s SA Best polled strongly but failed to win a single lower house seat.
One Nation is polling at 22 per cent statewide in SA, just days before Saturday’s election
One Nation’s momentum has been fuelled by ex-Liberal senator Cory Bernardi, now running for the Legislative Council.
Bernardi has hammered both major parties as a ‘uni-party’ and urged voters to break with political tradition.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson confronted Malinauskas at Wednesday’s Sky News Leader’s Debate, gatecrashing the event with Bernardi.
Hanson walked up to Malinauskas as he entered the building where the debate was being held.
‘I hope that, if Cory wins this seat and we gain some others, we’ll work with Labor on good policy,’ she said.
Malinauskas replied: ‘I’m always happy to work with those willing to work with us. We might have violently different views on some issues.’
He wished Hanson ‘safe travels back to Queensland’, in a pointed dig at her outsider status.
Beyond South Australia, state polling in Victoria and New South Wales shows One Nation’s surge is part of a broader trend reshaping Australian politics.
Malinauskas (left) is set for a comfortable win, while Hurn (right) fights for her political life
A Roy Morgan SMS poll in Victoria earlier this year showed One Nation with a 26.5 per cent primary vote.
Hanson’s party outpaced both Labor and the Coalition, and pointed to the possibility of a hung parliament at the next state election.
New South Wales is seeing a similar shift.
A February Roy Morgan poll found One Nation commanding 30 per cent of the primary vote, pushing Labor to 25 per cent and the Coalition to just 19 per cent, with a year to go until the state goes to the polls.
